“So, how’s the market?”
“Hey Matt, the vintage sports card market seems a bit soft. Do you agree?”
I get asked this question often. As an active collector, group admin, and Cardhound web site guy, I guess I’m relatively “in touch” with the market. And like any other know-it-all collector, I have opinions! But I’m no dealer, and any one collector’s perspective is pretty insignificant.
So, how’s the market, and how can we know? I do think anecdotes are valuable–especially when grounded in lots of activity, and of course, some actual data. So I rounded up a bit of each and here’s what I came up with.
Key Takeaways
- The April 2024 market is a bit softer than April 2023.
- Most vintage sports cards have followed almost the exact same overall trajectory from pre-COVID until now.
- If you bought heavily during the pandemic bubble, the market of course feels “down”.
- If you have been in vintage since 2018 and prior, today’s prices are about 300% of pre-COVID values.
- We are probably returning to “slow and steady,” like Vintage has been forever, although with a much higher “floor” for values than pre-COVID.
Let’s see how I arrived at these conclusions.
Methodology
I asked several vintage dealers for their perspectives on the vintage sports card market headed into summer, and I will share those themes below. I chatted with Brian Roth (Card Soup), Justin Farber (T206 Cards, and a supporter of Cardhound), Ashsh Jai (Legacy Cardz, also a supporter of Cardhound). All are active, professional dealers who sell online and at shows. I do think the “vibe” at Spring shows gives a good sense of the overall feeling of the market. And sales data are sales data.
I also spoke with auction house owner Al Crisafulli (Love of the Game). Insights from the auction side are crucial to understanding the market at large, since many higher-end sales aren’t at shows at all–price records are broken, or giant losses taken, at auction.
Lastly, I invented my own quick little model of something I’ll call the VPI (Vintage Price Index). Yes, there are good data trackers out there–but being a data guy myself, I wanted to form my own Index around my own methodology. I like the concept and might expand and maintain it.
Dealer Feedback
A selection from Ashsh Jai’s booth at a recent show.
My dealer friends seemed mixed on whether the current vintage sports card market is “down” in terms of prices, but all have a very optimistic view of the current market overall heading into the National and summer.
Roth says that “shows are hot right now, money is flowing leading into the summer months with the National upcoming. I’m very optimistic about the vintage market these days.” When I asked him directly whether he sees a softening in Vintage, his frank reply was “personally, I don’t.”
Justin Farber is also generally bullish on the market, and with sales data to support his view. His opinion: “From where I stand the vintage market is as strong as ever, with my monthly sale volume of individual graded cards at an all-time high. Activity in the modern side of the hobby definitely helps grow the number of collectors of vintage cards. I expect Fanatics’ marketing efforts to continue to be beneficial for growing the vintage side of the hobby.”
It will be interesting to see if modern can rebound with new energy (and new dollars) entering the market and either way, how that translates for vintage.
Ashsh says “some prices have come down a little, but also eye appeal has driven some up. Overall, buyers are more educated.” In terms of gauging the summer market in particular, he says “If you’re into vintage cards, now is the time to buy if the price is right. You’ll be able to find some good deals out there. If you’re waiting for the National to find your cards that is understandable as there will be a large selection but at the same time there will be lots of competition to buy. If you see the card you’ve been hunting for I would suggest you make a purchase now.”
Auction Feedback
A healthy price achieved at the recent Love of the Game spring auction.
As always, Al has an insightful take–which is informed by LOTG’s recent closed spring auction. Al also just got back from a coast-to-coast buying trip. He says that “A lot has been made of the recent decline in prices realized, and there’s no question that in a lot of areas, prices are unquestionably more soft than they were a year or two ago.” This is not really opinion–and is supported by my VPI analysis below. An Index of higher-end and prewar would also support this claim.
“But when it comes to the best material,” he continues, “prices continue to be strong. People continue to pay for rarity and quality. The other thing to consider, I think, is where these ‘soft’ numbers are in relation to where they were in, say, 2018.” (Editors note: I had already selected 2018 for my VPI for this very reason! See below).
“I think if you’d told collectors in 2018 that their ’52 Mantle in PSA 2 would double in value in just six years, most would be thrilled with that. My point being that desirable material is, relatively speaking, still pretty far ahead of where it was just a few years ago. I think the numbers from our recent auctions illustrate that pretty well – truly rare, high-end pieces continue to perform well and even break records. I think the only items in the hobby that are suspect from an investing standpoint are the ones that were suspect six years ago, too” he concluded.
Any surprising strengths? Al responded: “The thing that really has surprised me is how PSA registry material has continued to appreciate as grading fees have increased. We had several very common 1975 Topps cards sell into the five figures because of high grades. Collectors continue to pay premiums for the 9 and 10 grade.”
Matt’s VPI (Vintage Price Index)
I wanted to choose 5 cards (for now) that are iconic yet relatively affordable representations of the vintage sports card market. Of course, it’s impossible to capture an entire market in 5 cards, or 50 cards. But these are calculated selections, and any trends made visible in comparing them are at least fodder for further analysis or fun discussion.
For this index I excluded ’52 Topps Mantle, for example–a card that most collectors will just never obtain. A broader index could and should of course include prewar and higher-end Vintage, but that was not my focus here. I was aiming for iconic yet achievable–the “activity” that is most prevalent in the market. This kind of “activity” trickles both up and down, I think–a hot mid-range market creates hype that helps drive prices for both higher-end and lower-end cards. Ultimately, I decided on the following cards in the following grades:
1. 1948 Leaf Jackie, 2 grade
2. 1953 Topps Satchel Paige, 3 grade
3. 1956 Topps Mantle, 4 grade
4. 1968 Topps Ryan, 5 grade
5. 1971 Topps Clemente, 6 grade
Price points compared were as follows:
1. April, 2018 (pre-COVID)
2. April, 2023 (for year-over-year)
3. April, 2024 (current)
VPI Findings
I gathered sales data mainly from PSA’s web site (I’m an SGC guy but PSA has a much more robust site):
| 1948 Leaf Jackie | 1953 Topps Satch | 1956 Topps Mantle | 1968 Topps Ryan | 1971 Topps Clemente | |
| Grade | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 |
| April 2018 | $2,000 | $200 | $550 | $375 | $125 |
| April 2023 | $10,000 | $1000 | $1700 | $1100 | $390 |
| April 2024 | $6,600 | $725 | $1700 | $1000 | $350 |
As you can see, prices are a bit softer 2024 vs. 2023 overall. I chose the 48 Jackie because it spiked significantly during COVID, and seems to be as volatile as any card in the hobby. Mantle holds steady as usual. But yes, prices are down a tad in general.
But it’s important to take a longer view with vintage. Notably, almost every iconic card follows a very similar path historically, and they mostly look like this. Try it with cards of your choice! It’s remarkable how many cards follow this same arc. (images from PSA):
1956 Topps Mantle:
1968 Topps Ryan:
The key features here are:
- A long span of stability for the previous decade
- A dramatic spike during COVID
- A gradual “decline” to a new higher floor of value
And my overall prediction going forward is a new, permanent higher floor. Stability as usual for vintage. Record sales for desirable and truly rare cards.
In addition to tracking averages, I wonder if there’s a case for tracking volatility of realized auction prices as well?
An auction in which two or more motivated bidders are buying for their PC may be more likely to close near or above comps. If an auction is instead dominated by dealers, it may be more likely to close less than comps. Thus, if PC demand for a card is starting to falter, what you may see first is volatility in the price and then later a steady decline in price as we’ve seen with the Jackie RC.
Then I would be curious to see if the data could show card groupings by their price and volatility peformance, then see if any discernable patterns emerge.
That sounds totally cool, and way too complicated for an English teacher like me!
I do think that there is not a card “market” or even a “vintage card market.” There are markets, plural. They are all related obviously but there are different paths.
For most, card $$ is expendable income–not an “investment”–and that can be fickle (high inflation lowered expendable cash last year). A buyer for a SGC 9 52 Mantle also cares about inflation–but also has more money than most people can ever fathom.
I do think a volatility tracker would confirm / support your theory–but I’ve also been guilty of assuming too much “logic” in a hobby that runs on emotion, nostalgia, etc.
I’d be willing to experiment with some advanced analytics if I could get access to the underlying data of a service like VCP. Vector calculus isn’t exactly my thing either, but I know my way around data and am confident that I could produce something worth reading. I would want to create an analysis that can be repeated easily on a monthly/quarterly basis.
Though I am a small scale seller, I can tell in my 60-80 weekly auctions that there are likely to be patterns which cause shifts/pockets in demand by player, grade, centering, exogenous events (like awards/championships/deaths), seasonality, and cyclicality. For example, I have a theory that as the overall market softens cyclically, more buyers are paying a premium for well-centered, mid-grade vintage. The data ought to prove that out. We could also look at things like whether SGC- and PSA-graded cards are converging in value over time, and whether that is more or less true for some cards than others.
“The hobby” (whatever that means) is not my primary industry, so I might need help getting introduced to the right people who would be willing to partner on the data. If someone can provide the data, I can take a shot at some analytics. My goal would be to produce something which complements the good work you are already doing.
Guest session in the forum next week with reps from VCP, stay tuned! Do you think their data deals are exclusive?
I don’t have a ton of evidence as far as hard data, but I’m getting a feeling that the market is in the process of plummeting right now. All my sales on ebay and Facebook are down, and I’m not even getting many views on ebay. I hope I’m wrong!
Hmmm, I blazed through sales of 2 big consignment lots in the last week, it all seems pretty anecdotal. I auctioned cards instead of pricing them and got 50%-100% over what I would have asked. It’s tough to get seen on eBay. On Facebook, stick with claim sales or auctions with multiple cards listed–the key is for your posts to get consistent action / views which drag it back to the top. If you just price a couple cards and post a couple pics, you get buried by the algorithm.
Daniel, your comment inspired me to do some writing today! You probably already do this stuff but many don’t.
https://cardhoundvintage.com/5-tips-more-engagement/