Cardhound is teaming with Market Movers to develop a Cardhound Vintage Price Index that will be available on Cardhound Vintage.
You will be able to track and compare this index vs. other indices to get a feel for the vintage market vs. other market segments. This will be an affiliate relationship where Cardhound members can also get a big discount on Market Movers subscriptions. But the index is free. More details soon!
Defining the Vintage Price Index
So, this begs the question: What 100 cards do you want to see tracked in a Vintage Price Index?
For example: we could track the 100 most valuable vintage cards. Or the 100 most iconic (whatever that means). We could include prewar and postwar, or just focus on 1952-1980. Or 1985. The choices are endless.
My Proposal
My first thought is to track the 100 most significant Topps cards from 1952 to 1980. Most cards collected by most vintage collectors would be represented. We might disagree about the bottom 25, but not the top 25.
’52 Mantle. ’53 Satch. ’54 Aaron. ’55 Clemente. You get the idea. Cardhound has tracked prices manually via a VPI idea in the past--this would just expand on that idea and new data would be right at our fingertips.
The value of a T206 Wagner is interesting, but it’s not a card I will ever own. I would rather build an index that tracks “collector cards,” because that gives us the most useful insight into the “market” that the vast majority of collectors buy, sell, and trade in daily.
Your Proposal?
I’m curious to hear your thoughts. And if I ask nicely, I might be able to coax the folks at Market Movers into developing 2 indices (Prewar and Postwar seem like possibilities).
Drop your must-have cards or index ideas into the comments!
Love the idea! Might want to broaden it a bit beyond key cards as they may be more correlated with each other and less representative of the market as a whole.
Another thing to consider is whether you are going to do it like the S&P where it is dollar weighted such that say a Hank Aaron rookie counts more than say a Rickey Henderson rookie, or do you plan to do it based on % changes of the key cards with each weighted the same? Do you plan to do it across the grade spectrum? Say the same 100 cards at PSA 2, PSA 5 and PSA 8?
Tyler aka T-Pott here, from Market Movers. The index, as it stands right now, is built on a simple model of aggregate value. It does not work with any weighting distribution. What we do is add grades that are liquid enough, and we attempt to include cards within a specific price range so that no one card is too unevenly weighted.
Looking forward to it!
Great info–thanks. I’m almost done with my list(s) and will send tomorrow!
I personally track several cards that merit consideration and provide indicators for vintage market trends. These include:
1939 Play Ball Ted Williams RC
1948 Leaf Jackie Robinson RC
1951 Bowman Mickey Mantle RC
1951 Bowman Willie Mays RC
1954 Bowman Mickey Mantle – since there wasn’t a ’54T Mantle
1954 Topps Henry Aaron RC
1955 Topps Roberto Clemente RC
Other cards that I follow slightly less closely that also reflect vintage market trends, are:
1933 Goudey Ruth (4 variations) and Gehrig (2 variations).
1948 Leaf Satchel Paige- there are not many sales, so the ’49 is a better choice
1952 Topps Mickey Mantle
1954 Topps Willie Mays
Cool, thanks. I think I’ll try for 2 postwar indexes–1948-1959, and 1960 to 1980. Those markets are just so different that it doesn’t make much sense to track them together. Of course, all of the cards you have listed here 1948 and after are on the list.