A few months ago, I invented a Vintage Price Index (VPI) as a quick way to gauge the vintage sports card market. Think of it as a mini DOW Jones for vintage cards. I was working on a piece about the historical value gap between SGC and PSA cards.

First, I needed a quick easy way to take stock of the vintage market overall at any point in time. Second, I needed to be able to compare and track PSA and SGC values in relation to each other. And the VPI was born. Is it perfect? No. Is it useful? I think so.

The Findings for (end of) Summer 2024

I ran the numbers in June (through end of May 2024) and again today (though end of August 2024). There are a few observable trends of interest, and I know most people just want the findings.

Real data nerds can keep reading below! But for you casuals, here are the current trends as gleaned from the process described below:

• Yes, there was a slight dip or lull in June. Everyone was talking about the “slow market” anecdotally in the spring. Looking back, we can see a “dip,” and then a recovery though the end of the summer. Overall, the current market looks stable / trending up.

Examples of this “dip” can be seen in VCP data for just about any cool vintage card in any mid grade. I examined dozens of iconic cards to get a sense of the trend. For example, here are the last 3 months of data for Koufax and Aaron RC’s respectively:

• Prices are stable to rising–mostly up from end of May 2024, for both PSA and SGC examples in the VPI and otherwise.
• The value gap between PSA and SGC seems to be narrowing a bit more, continuing a trend noted in June.

What is the VPI?

The goal here was to choose a fixed set of iconic cards from across the spectrum of postwar vintage—popular cards in relatively “affordable” grades. If you are a serious vintage collector, you have owned at least one of these cards, or at least wanted to!

Of course, a prewar index would focus on Babe and Cobb and more. And a broader postwar VPI would be needed to support any heavy conclusions. The VPI focuses on efficiency in identifying broad trends in iconic vintage. Notably, commons, sets, and lesser stars and cards might follow very different trajectories.

Built on feedback from hundreds of collectors, the VPI consists of the following cards in the following grades:

1. 1948 Leaf Jackie, 2 grade

2. 1953 Topps Satchel Paige, 3 grade

3. 1956 Topps Mantle, 4 grade

4. 1968 Topps Ryan, 5 grade

5. 1971 Topps Clemente, 6 grade

VPI Methodology

The idea is to compare the most recent 5 auction sales of each card, in the specified grade, in PSA and SGC respectively. The result is a recent average value for each card, and in each slab. This can be compared to past data, to get a sense of where the market is headed. And it makes a PSA vs. SGC value comparison relatively accurate and fair. The model has its obvious flaws and limitations–but serves its purpose.

One limitation is that especially for cards like the Leaf Jackie, there just aren’t that many sales in a year at a specific grade. A broader index could examine multiple grades.

For example, there was only one SGC sale of a 2 since May. It pulled down a big number, and that’s because it’s a beaut, Clark! The fewer the total number of sales, the more skewed the data will be (up or down) depending in the specific card that sold.

May vs. August VPI Results

Here’s an updated look at the VPI data from end May 2024 compared to end August 2024.

Card / Grade	PSA May 24	PSA Aug 24	SGC May 24	SGC Aug 24	Value  Gap May	Value Gap  Aug
48 Leaf Jackie 2	$7710	$8750	$7252	$8100*	+6%PSA	+7%PSA
53 Topps Paige 3	$838	$879	$778	$875*	+7%PSA	even
56 Topps Mantle (gray) 4	$1659	$1917	$1407	$1760*	+15%PSA	+8%PSA
68 Topps Ryan 5	$1020	$1002	$883	$972	+13%PSA	+3%PSA
71 Topps Clemente 6	$336	$348	$276	$250*	+13%PSA	+28%PSA

* Not all cards had 5 sales since May. Averages were built from available sales. 

Final Analysis

One obvious finding above is that the sky is not falling. Whew! There were some truly ridiculous predictions in the spring. Above, almost every single number is up May to August. The one that isn’t, SGC 6 Clemente, had only one recent comp. I will do another write up at the end of November heading into winter.

Finally, PSA’s stranglehold on realized prices seems to be narrowing more with every analysis I do. This coincides with Gemrate data that shows PSA and SGC current market share for early vintage is in a near dead heat. Most recently Cardhound crunched grading numbers here. These trends will be best observed over time, and ideally across much more data. Stay tuned!

If you are noticing any other new trends in the vintage market, chime in below and I’ll gather some data!