There is always lots of hand-wringing about whether the next generations can pick up the slack as the largest generation in American history, the Baby Boomers, age out of the hobby. In order for vintage markets to hold or grow in the future, the hobby obviously needs “demand” to meet what could be a growing market “supply” of vintage cards. So what do we know right now about the potential for a demographic shift in vintage collectors?

In terms of a Gen X takeover, “are we there yet?” (Spoiler alert: if not yet, it’s very close).

Boomer Recap

Cardhound has written extensively about the idea of a “Boomer Bust” in vintage. I don’t want to restate the entire Boomers piece, but for some quick context (most stats are from Jean Twenge’s excellent book Generations):

  • The Baby Boomers were born between 1946 and 1964. As of 2024, they are either approaching retirement age (60), or right past U.S. life expectancy (78).
  • Despite many having passed away, as of 2021 Boomers still represented a staggering 21% of the United States population.
  • In contrast, Gen X, mostly still alive, represents about 18% of the U.S. population.
  • According to the Federal Reserve, Boomers own about 53% of all net worth in the United States.

My ultimate conclusion in the previous article is that things will settle out just fine, given:

  1. The wide age range of Boomers (they will age out or sell out over an ongoing span of 25+ years);
  2. The fact that many have likely already sold out and / or passed on; and
  3. The current healthy state of the vintage market overall

Gen X and Beyond

In this article I want to focus on what’s next for vintage: an active hobby market that is predominantly Gen X and younger. When will this happen? How will we know? How will the hobby change under new majority “ownership”?

Are We There Yet?

Gen X and younger are probably not the overall vintage collector majority yet, but it’s closer than you might think.

Below, check out the demographic info for members of the largest all-vintage group on Facebook, Vintage Baseball Cards. We should temper this analysis with an understanding that plenty of older folks don’t use Facebook or social media, for sure. But my Boomer parents do and I bet many of yours do as well.

Keeping in mind that the “55-64” age column is around 50% Gen X (55-59 years old), the breakdown would be approximately:

  • Boomers: 34%
  • Gen X: 37%
  • Millennials: 16%

So at least in terms of collector activity on social media, the generational torch has been passed. What this of course does not account for is the unknown supply of vintage cards resting comfortably in the basement binders of inactive Boomers! But as the years pass, these numbers are dwindling, too.

How Will We Know?

Again, there will be no ceremony–no literal passing of the torch. There will be no sudden flood of vintage cards onto the secondary market. The Boomer generation is just too varied for any sudden hobby impact. But we will watch those relative percentages continue to skew towards Gen X and younger. Then the question becomes–will the numbers be there to support the market? So far, so good.

According to an article titled “How Nostalgia Works” Nostalgia and Your Brain,” humans are most nostalgic after age 50. An article in Psychology Today suggests that this kind of “autobiographical memory” is strongest for ages 15-30. In other words, as 50+ year olds, we reminisce the most about events from our own lives as teens and twenty-somethings.

While I think the hobby is in safe hands with Gen X, I’ll let the next generation of bloggers and collectors deal with whether Gen Y and beyond will have enough baseball and / or collecting nostalgia to sustain the vintage hobby. But even that looks positive: the overall sports card market is predicted by many to double in value over the next 7 years.

What Does a Post-Boomer Hobby Look Like?

For me, this is where it gets interesting. After all, it’s not just a question of “raw numbers” of collectors. Generations have other notable differences, and these will likely shape the future of the hobby in ways we cannot currently forecast. The spending and consumer habits of Gen X are frequent fodder for researchers, and here are a few of the main Gen X characteristics:

Gen Xers are:

  • much more ethnically diverse than the Boomers
  • known for their skepticism and like to price shop
  • seem to value quality over quantity and view collecting as a form of self-expression
  • are more motivated my “experiences” than “stuff”
  • a smaller but mighty generation–currently outspending every other generation on things like entertainment, pets, clothes, and travel

What Can We Learn From Other Collectibles Markets?

Vintage baseball isn’t the only collectibles market that has typically been dominated by “older guys.” (Arguably, this is true of most U.S. collectibles markets, from art to antiques).

I remember reading years ago about similar fears in the classic car hobby. “Will young guys still care about these old cars?” It’s a reasonable–and comparable–question.

In an article called “Rise of the Youngtimers,” author Akash Cheeda recounts a remarkable ongoing demographic shift in classic car collecting. A 2020 Hagerty survey found that Gen Xers were actually more interested than Baby Boomers in purchasing a classic car (49% vs. 33%). And perhaps unsurprisingly, they are opting for 1980’s and 1990’s cars, “modern classics,” far more often that their Boomer counterparts.

Interestingly, the generations younger than Gen X reported even more interest in classic car ownership: 53% of Generation Z individuals, and 57% of Millennials, chose “very interested.” The market shift is towards “affordable enthusiasts’ drivers’ on more widely-accessible, online auction platforms,” Cheeda notes. While this might limit the market for ultra-high-end cars, the market might recoup based on sheer volume of cars sold.

It’s not a perfect comp, but it’s not bad.

A Few Predictions . . . 

So, what might all of this “mean” for the future of the hobby? Purely speculation on my part, and I would love to hear more thoughts from other collectors:

  • More racial diversity might equate to continued growth of Negro League collectibles, long-overlooked by a nearly all-white hobby
  • Gen X collections will be smaller in size but still significant in terms of overall value–big cards will continue to set sales records
  • Set building and other “bulk”-oriented pursuits might trail off, meaning depressed markets for commons, but . . .
  • Perhaps some of those overlooked 1970’s and 80’s cards will “boom” a bit as X-ers wax nostalgic about players from their youth or early adulthood
  • Vintage breaks, big shows, and other collecting “events” will continue to thrive and break new hobby ground

As a Gen Xer myself, these seem to ring true for me, and match what I’m seeing in the hobby currently. How about you? I’d love to see some other insights in the comments . . .