OK, this article title does have a little flair for the dramatic. But as a vintage collector, I do think it’s time to admit the obvious. Going forward, even as overall grading volume smashes records, vintage sports cards will be an ever-shrinking category.
As I sum up later, I don’t think this is necessarily a bad thing in the big picture. But the current grading landscape (high price, long turn times) does change things for many vintage collectors. Is it time for a raw card revolution?
In a recent small survey conducted by Cardhound, a surprising percentage of vintage collectors indicate they will be grading fewer cards in the future. This flies in the face of the hobby in general, which is submitting cards for grading and an unprecedented pace.
We know that overall grading activity is at an all-time high. PSA recently announced a $200 million investment in expanded grading operations. This includes hiring over 1,000 more card graders to meet unprecedented demand.
PSA graded 2 million cards in 2020 and will likely surpass 20 million in 2026. It’s tough to fathom. But 1950’s and earlier represents just one half of one percent of recent PSA volume.
Most of this volume is not baseball cards–and not even sports cards. It’s TCG (trading card game, i.e. mostly Pokemon). Pokemon alone accounts for more than half of all grading volume. Can this trend sustain? Maybe, maybe not. But either way, it appears that vintage sports card grading is on the wane.
So, why might vintage buck the grading trend? Lots of reasons. Here are just a few:
Reason 1: Shrinking Supply
Obviously, vintage cards are no longer being produced. TCG products release constantly. Vintage has a fixed (though unknown) supply. Sure, as the Boomers continue to age out of the hobby, there will be some landmark “binder finds,” but nothing like the raw card volume that existed 20 years ago. And certainly, what’s left is nothing like the endless supply of modern cards.
Reason 2: Cost
Collecting used to be fun and affordable. You could grade commons for a few bucks each and build your registry sets without going broke. But at today’s prices of $20+ per card, most set builders will decide that raw is just fine, thanks.
Reason 3: Time
There’s generally no “hurry” to grade a vintage card. It’s not like a deceased player will suddenly get hot and rocket in value. Grading currently involves a 3-6 month wait time–or longer. Neither collectors nor dealers want to have their mid-tier vintage stuck in that pipeline for months at a time.
Reason 4: Most Important Vintage Cards Are Already Graded
OK, I can’t prove this. But logic suggests that, 35 years into professional grading, certainly the majority of landmark vintage cards are already graded. I would love to be proven wrong here!
Reason 5: Vintage is Becoming Niche
When grading debuted, most cards submitted for grading were “vintage sports cards.” Now, vintage is barely a blip on the grading radar. Yes–most of the highest-value cards ever sold are vintage baseball cards. But the more time passes, the more we tend to focus on ’52 Mantles and ’48 Jackies. Higher grades, lower populations–high values, but also, a much smaller overall market.
Reason 6: Decline of Baseball Collecting in General
Today’s young collectors are mostly into Pokemon cards, not baseball cards. They won’t have any baseball card nostalgia to fuel a later interest in vintage sports cards. This is the history that brought many Gen X folks into vintage (or, during COVID, back into vintage).
Reason 7: The Forced Shrinkage of SGC
It wasn’t long ago that SGC actually outperformed PSA for 1950’s and earlier, per Gemrate. SGC competed neck and neck with PSA for vintage market share right up until the buyout and forced slowdown. SGC offered fair pricing and fast turnarounds for consistent grades. PSA struggles with all three of those. Many SGC loyalists are simply deciding not to grade with PSA–and most of those on the sidelines are vintage collectors.
And By The Way, I’m Fine With All of This . . .
Look, a declining share is inevitable, and in my opinion, fine and good. Vintage is all about rarity, scarcity, supply, and demand. The current “grade everything!” trend will result in a new junk era–where many cards will sell below the cost of grading.
More grading volume is great for PSA, but not necessarily for collectors. While current grading prices and turn times suck some fun out of the hobby, a slowing of vintage grading volume means stability for values over the long haul. And maybe it will spark a raw card revolution, where a whole new generation can learn all about that vintage raw card smell!
