There’s no question: vintage is booming right now. The question is, what is driving it? And is it best to buy, sell, or hold in a booming market?
Cardhound Vintage 100 Index
A couple years ago, I collaborated with the fine folks at Market Movers to craft a “Cardhound Vintage 100” index for their Market Pulse feature. The idea was to choose 100 representative vintage postwar cards in attainable grades, and track sales prices over time.
While not a perfect representation of the market, it certainly passes the “eye test” for anyone actively buying and selling vintage sports cards currently: vintage isn’t just “up,” it’s way up. About a third in the last year alone. And over 40% since the post-COVID “dip.”
What’s Driving the Vintage Boom
Most regular folks are feeling the pinch of high prices right now–at the pump, the grocery store, the housing market. Etc. One might think those pressures would drive prices for something less necessary down, not up. For most of us, baseball cards are a discretionary purchase–a fun way to spend “extra” money. So why are prices up instead? It seems counterintuitive. But here are some possibilities:
Beyond the Boomers
If demand is spreading “down” from the Baby Boomers to X-ers and beyond, this would provide price pressure since as we all know, they aren’t printing any more vintage sports cards. Any surge in demand will stress the limited supply.
That said, the supply of most vintage cards isn’t that limited. Postwar cards generally aren’t rare, except in really high grades. You can find just about any postwar card in a quick eBay search.
Investors
We know that sports cards are morphing into an investment class–akin to fine art. High grade icons continue to break records at auction, which creates a sort of feedback loop. This could be driving interest and prices in more attainable examples. It really shouldn’t, but that’s beside the point. Markets are psychological and not only driven by reason and data.
Beyond this though, understanding the boom is speculation. Are some modern collectors tiring of chasing seemingly unlimited 1/1 variations and graduating to vintage? Maybe.
Is It a Bubble?
While I don’t think the market will sustain these numbers, I also don’t think it’s a bubble, like we saw during the early days of COVID. This market doesn’t have many of those hallmarks, really. The demand seems to have a broad base; supply is limited; collectors are smarter and more informed than ever. There’s no reason to “panic buy” currently.
Buy, Sell, or Hold?
I’m just a collector, not a dealer–so I hate price surges. I could not afford to buy back much of my own collection in this market! But as much as I hate to do so, I’m currently selling some cards–taking big gains and consolidating into fewer cards. I’m also just stashing some of the cash hoping to buy back when the dip surely comes, likely over the winter.
