A new year brings hope, optimism, resolutions, and of course, yearly predictions. Based on absolutely nothing but pure instinct and a bit of logical deduction, here are Cardhound’s 5 predictions for the 2025 vintage sports card market. Enjoy, and drop your own predictions in the Comments!
Prediction #1: Boom for 1970’s
1970’s cards, especially 1976-1979, have long been the outcasts of vintage. It’s understandable. 1973 marked the end of cards being issued in “series,” annoying some purists. Several 70’s sets are hampered by bland designs. So many multi-player rookie cards. Ugh.
So, why will the 1970’s have their heyday? Demographics. Most active vintage collectors grew up idolizing players who came up in the 1970’s. They are nearing retirement, and entering prime “disposable income” years. So, Thurman Munson, Carlton Fisk, Mike Schmidt, George Brett, and my childhood favorite Dale Murphy? It’s your time.
(By the way, as of press time, a PSA 9 Murphy rookie is a $300 card. Let’s revisit this post next year!).
Prediction #2: Great Cards Keep Breaking Records
Great cards have been breaking records like crazy, a trend Cardhound has documented many times in 2024. There’s no reason that won’t continue. The economy remains strong–especially for those who already have money. And they aren’t printing any more 1933 Goudey Ruths. Look for high grade iconic vintage to continue its upward trajectory in 2025.
Prediction #3: Most Vintage Values Will Stay Flat
Cards that are not elite–let’s call them collector grade cards–will be steady to flat in 2025. Why? Because that’s how mainstream vintage usually fares, pandemics aside. Almost every vintage card spiked 2x-3x during COVID, and let’s face it, that was both unsustainable and undesirable.
Prices seem to have steadied at a new higher floor than pre-COVID, and with so many more collectors in the hobby, I predict “slow and steady,” the norm for vintage, to prevail in 2025.
Prediction #4: Grading Slowdown
Gemrate shows that 2024 was another banner year for card grading, with every major grader except for Beckett experiencing huge growth in volume. I just think that this kind of exponential growth is not sustainable year over year over year. This is perhaps even more true for vintage cards–since there is no truly new supply.
And SGC, for example, simply cannot continue to grow by nearly 50% without dramatic expansion or innovation. It’s not particularly known for either, with little immediate change after a buyout from PSA’s parent company.
Prediction #5: Grading Shakeup?
In addition to SGC landing with Collectors, the end of 2024 saw Beckett also pick up a new parent company. Collectivus Holdings now controls Beckett, under the same umbrella as other hobby brands Dragon Shield and Southern Hobby Distribution. Frankly, Beckett is barely a sports card grader at all these days, focusing on TCG and non-card items such as comics, VHS, and tickets.
I predict some major developments in sports card grading this year. Maybe Beckett leaves the space entirely, and / or sells its auto authentication arm to SGC (why not?). If sports card grading does slow at all, Beckett is toast in that space.
My favorite grading prediction is that SGC will finally get over the hump and join the big leagues. That’s right, a set registry!
I hope you have enjoyed these predictions for the 2025 vintage sports card market. Have your own? Share them below and we can revisit next year.
