I went to a local card show today, and the ratio of sports to TCG (mostly Pokemon) was about as usual lately. At least 60% Pokemon. And out of the 60 or so tables, 1 vendor had majority vintage sports. Frankly, I hardly attend local shows anymore. There’s just almost no vintage–and in some cases, barely any sports!
Of course, neither vintage nor sports is dead. The National. Strongsville. Philly. Etc. Vintage collectors have plenty of shows. And “card shows” aren’t the primary marketplace for vintage–especially for high-end. But it begs the question: what’s the future of “the local card show”?
What Happened to Sports?
This could be “old man yells at cloud.” But I miss the days when “card show” was synonymous with “sports cards.” And it makes me wonder whether this is a passing fad, or the new normal for card collecting.
But what happened to sports and sports cards? Some possible factors include price barrier to entry (packs and boxes are expensive) and fewer youth engaged in baseball fandom. While sports cards were once the backbone of the hobby, the cultural and economic momentum has shifted toward TCGs.
Does Pokemon Have Staying Power?
As much as I would like to write off TCG as a passing fad, there are some signs that it is now a very permanent part of the card show landscape. Strong fundamentals, investment interest, and a nostalgia factor for younger collectors that rivals sports fandom work in favor of TCG.
On the downside, I do wonder about oversupply and potential volatility in a market driven at least in part by influencers and hype cycles. Just like the junk wax era of sports cards, there is no accountability to consumers for print runs. Pokemon sets are printed for an indetermined amount of time depending on interest. And without the manufactured scarcity factor (no 1/1 or numbered cards), the total population of any one card is a mystery. As one who collected in the late 1980’s–sounds familiar, and scary.
Grading Trends
Grading trends mirror what we see at card shows–TCG represent a vast majority of newly graded cards. Out of 2.2 millions total cards graded in September, over 1.2m were TCG. To put it another way, PSA graded more Pokemon cards last month than everything else combined!
Can Sports Rebound?
Can sports rebound at the local show? Of course! But it will take a lot of things going right. For one, nostalgia is cyclical. As today’s young kids age, they have some modern-day megastars to collect in the future in Shohei Ohtani, Patrick Mahomes, or Victor Wembanyama.
If Fanatics is ultimately successful in reinventing the sports collecting experience, some of the appealing aspects of TCG (games, etc.) might work their way into sports card collecting.
Will a sports collecting resurgence work its way back to vintage? Or is vintage a totally different product and demographic from TCG and modern shorts?
Let’s talk about the future of sports and sports card collecting. Or you can just confirm the “old man yells at cloud” thing!
